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AC Oulu vs Gnistan — Veikkausliiga 2018

AC Oulu
AC Oulu
Preview
14:00
Gnistan
Gnistan
7/18/2026VeikkausliigaVeikkausliiga · Round 16Raatin stadion
Big match
41%
AC Oulu
model favours
41%25%34%

AC Oulu score first in only 19% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

AC Oulu41%
×Draw25%
Gnistan34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Oulu
1.54
Gnistan
1.38

AC Oulu creates 12% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 38 away

creates per match

AC Oulu
1.26
Gnistan
1.39

allows per match

AC Oulu
1.36
Gnistan
1.82

finishing

AC Oulu+0.00on par
Gnistan+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Oulu ↓

Gnistan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AC Oulu or draw
66%
AC Oulu or Gnistan
75%
Draw or Gnistan
59%

Winning margin

AC Oulu wins by 2+
20%
Gnistan wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

AC Oulu 1+ goals
79%
AC Oulu 2+ goals
45%
AC Oulu 3+ goals
20%
Gnistan 1+ goals
75%
Gnistan 2+ goals
40%
Gnistan 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

AC Oulu (draw refunded)
55%
Gnistan (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Oulu at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Gnistan away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.82 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Oulu attack 1.26 + Gnistan defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.54

Gnistan attack 1.39 + AC Oulu defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Oulu scores more
41%
level
25%
Gnistan scores more
34%

AC Oulu at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Oulu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Gnistan score first in only 35% of matches
  • Gnistan win just 18% of their away games
  • Both teams score in 70% of Gnistan’s matches

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Oulu
LDLWD
Gnistan
WLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Oulu vs Gnistan — Match Preview

AC Oulu face Gnistan on July 18, 2026 in this Veikkausliiga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

AC Oulu host Gnistan at Raatin stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.