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AC Milan vs Torino — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Torino
Torino
Ante Rebić 25'
2/17/2020Serie ASerie A · Round 24Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

AC Milan47%
×Draw26%
Torino27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.47
Torino
1.06

AC Milan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Torino
1.01

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
Torino
1.30

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Torino →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
73%
AC Milan or Torino
74%
Draw or Torino
53%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
23%
Torino wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
77%
AC Milan 2+ goals
43%
AC Milan 3+ goals
18%
Torino 1+ goals
65%
Torino 2+ goals
29%
Torino 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
63%
Torino (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Torino attack 1.01 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AC Milan scores more
47%
level
26%
Torino scores more
27%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
Alessio RomagnoliAC MilanAC Milan · D
7.9

Match Events

22'
Ismaël Bennacer
25'
Ante Rebić↳ Samu Castillejo
34'
Simone Edera
44'
Matteo Gabbia← Simon Kjær
50'
Samu Castillejo
60'
Tomás Rincón
64'
Simone Zaza← Simone Edera
69'
Giacomo Bonaventura← Lucas Paquetá
72'
Cristian Ansaldi
85'
Ola Aina← Lyanco
85'
Vincenzo Millico← Alex Berenguer
88'
Rafael Leão← Ante Rebić

Possession

50%AC

Shots

15AC

Pass accuracy

50%AC

Statistics

ACTorino
Overview
50%Possession50%
15Total Shots9
10Corners5
16Fouls11
Shots
15Total Shots9
1On Target1
7Off Target5
7Blocked3
7Inside Box4
8Outside Box5
Passing
50%Possession50%
415Total Passes401
318Accurate Passes311
77%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
1Saves0
Discipline
16Fouls11
2Yellow Cards3
4Offsides2

Serie A: AC Milan 1–0 Torino

AC Milan beat Torino 1-0 in Serie A on February 17, 2020.

Goals: Ante Rebić (25').

AC Milan controlled possession (50%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.