AC Milan 0–0 Torino: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Torino

12/9/2018

Serie A · Round 15San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

AC Milan47%

×Draw26%

Torino27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchTorino

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.06

AC Milan

1.47

Torino

1.06

AC Milan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

1.64

creates per match

1.01

1.10

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Torino

1.01

allows per match

AC Milan

1.10

Torino

1.30

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less

Torino-0.01on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Torino →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

73%

AC Milan or Torino

74%

Draw or Torino

53%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

23%

Torino wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

77%

AC Milan 2+ goals

43%

AC Milan 3+ goals

18%

Torino 1+ goals

65%

Torino 2+ goals

29%

Torino 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

63%

Torino (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Torino away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.30 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Torino defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.47

Torino attack 1.01 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

AC Milan scores more

47%

level

26%

Torino scores more

27%

AC Milan at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

K. Djidji

Torino · D

8.0

Match Events

8'

16'

35'

38'

69'

70'

71'

Samu Castillejo← H. Çalhanoğlu

81'

S. Lukić← D. Baselli

90+1'

Álex Berenguer← C. Ansaldi

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACTorino

Overview

57%Possession43%

16Total Shots13

11Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

16Total Shots13

3On Target4

7Off Target7

6Blocked2

11Inside Box8

5Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

461Total Passes354

386Accurate Passes271

84%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

1Offsides0