Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

AC Milan vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
12/15/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 16Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 31+ matches

AC Milan48%
×Draw25%
Sassuolo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.63
Sassuolo
1.17

AC Milan creates 39% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.63
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

AC Milan
1.11
Sassuolo
1.64

finishing

AC Milan-0.18scores less
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
73%
AC Milan or Sassuolo
75%
Draw or Sassuolo
52%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
25%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
80%
AC Milan 2+ goals
48%
AC Milan 3+ goals
22%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
69%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
33%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
64%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.63 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.63

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + AC Milan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Milan scores more
48%
level
25%
Sassuolo scores more
27%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

56
Gianluca PegoloSassuoloSassuolo · G
9.1

Match Events

10'
Jeremy Toljan
29'
Theo Hernández
39'
Francesco Caputo
40'
Mateo Musacchio
42'
Franck Kessié
56'
Lucas Paquetá← Franck Kessié
68'
Hamed Junior Traorè← Filip Đuričić
72'
Giacomo Bonaventura
72'
Manuel Locatelli
75'
Filippo Romagna← Gianmarco Ferrari
78'
Rafael Leão← Krzysztof Piątek
79'
Pedro Obiang← Manuel Locatelli
80'
Marlon
85'
Samu Castillejo← Suso
90'
Lucas Paquetá

Possession

49%AC

Shots

23AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACSassuolo
Overview
49%Possession51%
23Total Shots18
8Corners3
14Fouls16
Shots
23Total Shots18
9On Target6
9Off Target6
5Blocked6
15Inside Box9
8Outside Box9
Passing
49%Possession51%
428Total Passes447
349Accurate Passes358
82%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
6Saves8
Discipline
14Fouls16
5Yellow Cards4
3Offsides1

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Sassuolo

AC Milan and Sassuolo drew 0-0 in Serie A on December 15, 2019.

Sassuolo controlled possession (51%) and registered 18 shots to 23.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.