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AC Milan vs Sassuolo — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Sassuolo
Sassuolo
Pol Lirola 35' (OG)
3/2/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 26San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

AC Milan48%
×Draw24%
Sassuolo27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.64
Sassuolo
1.17

AC Milan creates 40% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Sassuolo
1.23

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
Sassuolo
1.64

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
Sassuolo+0.01on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Sassuolo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
73%
AC Milan or Sassuolo
76%
Draw or Sassuolo
52%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
25%
Sassuolo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
81%
AC Milan 2+ goals
49%
AC Milan 3+ goals
23%
Sassuolo 1+ goals
69%
Sassuolo 2+ goals
33%
Sassuolo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
64%
Sassuolo (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Sassuolo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.64 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Sassuolo defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sassuolo attack 1.23 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Milan scores more
48%
level
24%
Sassuolo scores more
27%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99
G. DonnarummaAC MilanAC Milan · G
8.0

Match Events

35'
Pol LirolaOwn goal
37'
Tiemoué Bakayoko
51'
Lucas Paquetá
56'
L. Biglia← T. Bakayoko
63'
M. Bourabia← M. Locatelli
64'
Andrea Consigli
68'
G. Pegolo← F. Magnanelli
73'
Samu Castillejo← Lucas Paquetá
74'
A. Matri← F. Đuričić
84'
P. Cutrone← K. Piątek
90'
Ricardo Rodríguez

Possession

45%AC

Shots

11AC

Pass accuracy

50%AC

Statistics

ACSassuolo
Overview
45%Possession55%
11Total Shots14
6Corners6
20Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots14
3On Target4
3Off Target6
5Blocked4
6Inside Box5
5Outside Box9
Passing
45%Possession55%
418Total Passes512
367Accurate Passes452
88%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
20Fouls9
3Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards1
1Offsides3

Serie A: AC Milan 1–0 Sassuolo

AC Milan beat Sassuolo 1-0 in Serie A on March 2, 2019.

Goals: Pol Lirola (35' o.g.).

Sassuolo controlled possession (55%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.