AC Milan 0–0 Napoli: Result & Stats | Serie A

AC Milan

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Napoli

1/26/2019

Serie A · Round 21San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 32+ matches

AC Milan37%

×Draw27%

Napoli37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchNapoli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.26

AC Milan

1.26

Napoli

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 32 away

1.64

creates per match

1.42

1.10

allows per match

0.89

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Napoli

1.42

allows per match

AC Milan

1.10

Napoli

0.89

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less

Napoli+0.21scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Napoli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

63%

AC Milan or Napoli

73%

Draw or Napoli

63%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

16%

Napoli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

72%

AC Milan 2+ goals

36%

AC Milan 3+ goals

13%

Napoli 1+ goals

72%

Napoli 2+ goals

36%

Napoli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

50%

Napoli (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.89 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Napoli defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.26

Napoli attack 1.42 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

AC Milan scores more

37%

level

27%

Napoli scores more

37%

AC Milan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

99

G. Donnarumma

AC Milan · G

8.4

Match Events

17'

Patrick Cutrone

18'

Fabián Ruiz

69'

F. Borini← Lucas Paquetá

71'

K. Piątek← P. Cutrone

72'

F. Ghoulam← Mário Rui

80'

86'

88'

90'

90'

90'

D. Laxalt← H. Çalhanoğlu

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACNapoli

Overview

46%Possession54%

14Total Shots15

6Corners8

7Fouls13

Shots

14Total Shots15

5On Target6

6Off Target8

3Blocked1

7Inside Box8

7Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

484Total Passes554

412Accurate Passes491

85%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

6Saves5

Discipline

7Fouls13

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2