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AC Milan vs Lazio — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Lazio
Lazio
5/6/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 34Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan45%
×Draw26%
Lazio29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.46
Lazio
1.11

AC Milan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 26 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
Lazio
1.08

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
Lazio
1.26

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
Lazio-0.04on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Lazio →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
71%
AC Milan or Lazio
74%
Draw or Lazio
55%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
22%
Lazio wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
77%
AC Milan 2+ goals
43%
AC Milan 3+ goals
18%
Lazio 1+ goals
67%
Lazio 2+ goals
30%
Lazio 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
61%
Lazio (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Lazio away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.26 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Lazio defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.46

Lazio attack 1.08 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

AC Milan scores more
45%
level
26%
Lazio scores more
29%

AC Milan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Milan 2 – 0 Lazio

AC Milan beat Lazio 2-0 in Serie A on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.