AC Milan 4–2 Juventus: Result & Stats | Serie A

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC MilanExpected goals in this matchJuventus

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.29

AC Milan

1.32

Juventus

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.64

creates per match

1.47

1.10

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

AC Milan

1.64

Juventus

1.47

allows per match

AC Milan

1.10

Juventus

1.01

-0.12scores less than expected

finishing

-0.09on par

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less

Juventus-0.09on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Juventus →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw

64%

AC Milan or Juventus

74%

Draw or Juventus

62%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+

17%

Juventus wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals

73%

AC Milan 2+ goals

38%

AC Milan 3+ goals

15%

Juventus 1+ goals

72%

Juventus 2+ goals

37%

Juventus 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)

51%

Juventus (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Juventus away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.01 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Juventus defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.32

Juventus attack 1.47 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

AC Milan scores more

38%

level

26%

Juventus scores more

36%

AC Milan at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Ante Rebić

AC Milan · F

8.0

Match Events

31'

L. Paqueta

36'

I. Bennacer

46'

L. Paqueta← H. Calhanoglu

47'

A. Rabiot

53'

C. Ronaldo↳ J. Cuadrado

59'

A. Rebic

60'

A. Saelemaekers← R. Leao

62'

L. Bonucci

62'

Z. IbrahimovicPenalty

66'

F. Kessie↳ Z. Ibrahimovic

67'

Z. Ibrahimovic← G. Bonaventura

67'

R. Leao↳ A. Rebic

69'

A. Rabiot← B. Matuidi

69'

G. Higuain← D. Costa

69'

M. Pjanic← A. Ramsey

73'

A. Conti

77'

J. Cuadrado← Alex Sandro

80'

A. Rebic↳ G. Bonaventura

82'

A. Conti← D. Calabria

82'

A. Rebic← R. Krunic

90+4'

R. Bentancur← S. Muratore

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ACJuventus

Overview

49%Possession51%

13Total Shots14

2Corners6

14Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots14

9On Target4

0Off Target6

4Blocked4

9Inside Box8

4Outside Box6

Passing

49%Possession51%

467Total Passes454

406Accurate Passes398

87%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls16

4Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1