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AC Milan vs Genoa — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Genoa
Genoa
A. Romagnoli 90+1'
Suso 4'
A. Romagnoli 56' (OG)
10/31/2018Serie ASerie A · Round 1San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

AC Milan48%
×Draw25%
Genoa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.55
Genoa
1.08

AC Milan creates 44% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 27 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.63
Genoa
1.04

allows per match

AC Milan
1.11
Genoa
1.47

finishing

AC Milan-0.18scores less
Genoa-0.11scores less

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Genoa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
74%
AC Milan or Genoa
75%
Draw or Genoa
52%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
25%
Genoa wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
79%
AC Milan 2+ goals
46%
AC Milan 3+ goals
20%
Genoa 1+ goals
66%
Genoa 2+ goals
29%
Genoa 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
65%
Genoa (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.11 · 31 matches

Genoa away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.47 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.63 + Genoa defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.55

Genoa attack 1.04 + AC Milan defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

AC Milan scores more
48%
level
25%
Genoa scores more
26%

AC Milan at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
SusoAC MilanAC Milan · F
7.9

Match Events

4'
Suso↳ H. Çalhanoğlu
43'
Domenico Criscito
50'
Franck Kessié
56'
A. RomagnoliOwn goal
63'
I. Abate← D. Laxalt
67'
Miguel Veloso← Rômulo
78'
S. Omeonga← L. Mazzitelli
80'
Miguel Veloso
83'
Ricardo Rodríguez
83'
Samu Castillejo← H. Çalhanoğlu
85'
G. Pandev← K. Piątek
90+1'
A. Romagnoli

Possession

58%AC

Shots

28AC

Pass accuracy

53%AC

Statistics

ACGenoa
Overview
58%Possession42%
28Total Shots9
7Corners2
10Fouls18
Shots
28Total Shots9
9On Target2
13Off Target6
6Blocked1
10Inside Box6
18Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
553Total Passes396
491Accurate Passes317
89%Pass Accuracy80%
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
Discipline
10Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
1Offsides0

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Genoa

AC Milan beat Genoa 2-1 in Serie A on October 31, 2018.

Goals: Suso (4'), A. Romagnoli (56' o.g., 90+1').

AC Milan controlled possession (58%) and registered 28 shots to 9.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.