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AC Milan vs Cagliari — Serie A 2026

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cagliari
Cagliari
K. Piątek 62'
Lucas Paquetá 22'
L. Ceppitelli 13' (OG)
2/10/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 23San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

AC Milan53%
×Draw24%
Cagliari23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.67
Cagliari
1.01

AC Milan creates 65% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.64
Cagliari
0.92

allows per match

AC Milan
1.10
Cagliari
1.71

finishing

AC Milan-0.12scores less
Cagliari+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Cagliari →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
77%
AC Milan or Cagliari
76%
Draw or Cagliari
47%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
28%
Cagliari wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
81%
AC Milan 2+ goals
50%
AC Milan 3+ goals
23%
Cagliari 1+ goals
64%
Cagliari 2+ goals
27%
Cagliari 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
70%
Cagliari (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.10 · 33 matches

Cagliari away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.71 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.64 + Cagliari defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.67

Cagliari attack 0.92 + AC Milan defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

AC Milan scores more
53%
level
24%
Cagliari scores more
23%

AC Milan at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

79
F. KessiéAC MilanAC Milan · M
7.8

Match Events

13'
L. CeppitelliOwn goal
22'
Lucas Paquetá↳ D. Calabria
62'
K. Piątek
65'
P. Cutrone← K. Piątek
66'
A. Conti← D. Calabria
68'
A. Deiola← S. Padoin
75'
Paolo Faragò
76'
K. Despodov← A. Ioniţă
77'
F. Borini← H. Çalhanoğlu
80'
F. Bradarić← João Pedro

Possession

52%AC

Shots

19AC

Pass accuracy

51%AC

Statistics

ACCagliari
Overview
52%Possession48%
19Total Shots9
2Corners5
12Fouls11
Shots
19Total Shots9
11On Target2
8Off Target5
0Blocked2
11Inside Box8
8Outside Box1
Passing
52%Possession48%
528Total Passes459
454Accurate Passes385
86%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
2Saves9
Discipline
12Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Serie A: AC Milan 3–0 Cagliari

AC Milan beat Cagliari 3-0 in Serie A on February 10, 2019.

Goals: L. Ceppitelli (13' o.g.), Lucas Paquetá (22'), K. Piątek (62').

AC Milan controlled possession (52%) and registered 19 shots to 9.

The match was played at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza in Milan.