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AC Milan vs Atalanta — Serie A 2018

AC Milan
AC Milan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atalanta
Atalanta
2/26/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 24Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 25+ matches

AC Milan41%
×Draw26%
Atalanta33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Milan
1.44
Atalanta
1.27

AC Milan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 25 away

creates per match

AC Milan
1.67
Atalanta
1.40

allows per match

AC Milan
1.15
Atalanta
1.22

finishing

AC Milan-0.24scores less
Atalanta+0.04on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Milan ↓

Atalanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

AC Milan or draw
67%
AC Milan or Atalanta
74%
Draw or Atalanta
59%

Winning margin

AC Milan wins by 2+
20%
Atalanta wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

AC Milan 1+ goals
76%
AC Milan 2+ goals
42%
AC Milan 3+ goals
18%
Atalanta 1+ goals
72%
Atalanta 2+ goals
36%
Atalanta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

AC Milan (draw refunded)
55%
Atalanta (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Milan at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.15 · 28 matches

Atalanta away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.22 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Milan attack 1.67 + Atalanta defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.44

Atalanta attack 1.40 + AC Milan defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

AC Milan scores more
41%
level
26%
Atalanta scores more
33%

AC Milan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "AC Milan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AC Milan vs Atalanta

AC Milan beat Atalanta 2-0 in Serie A on February 26, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza in Milano.