AC Horsens 1–2 Kolding IF: Result & Stats

AC Horsens

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Kolding IF

2/23/2024

1. Division · Round 19Nordstern Arena Horsens

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

AC Horsens42%

×Draw26%

Kolding IF32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AC HorsensExpected goals in this matchKolding IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.22

AC Horsens

1.44

Kolding IF

1.22

AC Horsens creates 18% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 81 away

1.52

creates per match

1.16

1.28

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

AC Horsens

1.52

Kolding IF

1.16

allows per match

AC Horsens

1.28

Kolding IF

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

Kolding IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw

68%

AC Horsens or Kolding IF

74%

Draw or Kolding IF

58%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+

20%

Kolding IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals

76%

AC Horsens 2+ goals

42%

AC Horsens 3+ goals

18%

Kolding IF 1+ goals

70%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

34%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)

57%

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.28 · 64 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.35 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.52 + Kolding IF defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.44

Kolding IF attack 1.16 + AC Horsens defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AC Horsens scores more

42%

level

26%

Kolding IF scores more

32%

AC Horsens at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AC Horsens will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff