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AC Horsens vs FC Nordsjaelland — Superliga 2018

AC Horsens
AC Horsens
Preview
16:00
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
7/26/2026SuperligaSuperliga · Round 1Hybel Arena Horsens
Big match
40%
FC Nordsjaelland
model favours
36%25%40%

AC Horsens score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

AC Horsens36%
×Draw25%
FC Nordsjaelland40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AC Horsens
1.44
FC Nordsjaelland
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 132 away

creates per match

AC Horsens
1.21
FC Nordsjaelland
1.33

allows per match

AC Horsens
1.70
FC Nordsjaelland
1.68

finishing

AC Horsens+0.00on par
FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AC Horsens ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

AC Horsens or draw
60%
AC Horsens or FC Nordsjaelland
75%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
64%

Winning margin

AC Horsens wins by 2+
17%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

AC Horsens 1+ goals
76%
AC Horsens 2+ goals
42%
AC Horsens 3+ goals
18%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
78%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
45%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

AC Horsens (draw refunded)
48%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AC Horsens at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.70 · 63 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.68 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AC Horsens attack 1.21 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.44

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.33 + AC Horsens defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

AC Horsens scores more
36%
level
25%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
40%

FC Nordsjaelland at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "FC Nordsjaelland will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • 80% of AC Horsens’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • FC Nordsjaelland score first in only 29% of matches
  • Style contrast — AC Horsens play Direct / counter-attacking, FC Nordsjaelland Possession-dominant

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
AC Horsens
Direct / counter-attacking
FC Nordsjaelland
Possession-dominant
41%Possession59%
71%Pass accuracy87%
9.6ShotsBiggest gap14.4
—xG1.72
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
AC HorsensFC Nordsjaelland

Head-to-head

9 previous meetings

2
AC Horsens
4
Draws
3
FC Nordsjaelland
Avg goals: 3BTTS: 44%
1–10–21–02–21–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Horsens
LLLWD
Nordsjaelland
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AC Horsens vs FC Nordsjaelland — Match Preview

AC Horsens face FC Nordsjaelland on July 26, 2026 in this Superliga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

AC Horsens host FC Nordsjaelland at Hybel Arena Horsens.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.