Abia Warriors 0–1 Lobi Stars: Result & Stats | NPFL

Abia Warriors

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lobi Stars

1/22/2023

NPFL · Round 3Umuahia Township Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 113+ matches

Abia Warriors60%

×Draw26%

Lobi Stars14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Abia WarriorsExpected goals in this matchLobi Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.49

0.56

Abia Warriors

1.49

Lobi Stars

0.56

Abia Warriors creates 166% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 113 away

1.50

creates per match

0.53

0.60

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Abia Warriors

1.50

Lobi Stars

0.53

allows per match

Abia Warriors

0.60

Lobi Stars

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Abia Warriors+0.00on par

Lobi Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abia Warriors ↓

Lobi Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Abia Warriors or draw

86%

Abia Warriors or Lobi Stars

74%

Draw or Lobi Stars

40%

Winning margin

Abia Warriors wins by 2+

32%

Lobi Stars wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Abia Warriors 1+ goals

77%

Abia Warriors 2+ goals

44%

Abia Warriors 3+ goals

19%

Lobi Stars 1+ goals

43%

Lobi Stars 2+ goals

11%

Lobi Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Abia Warriors (draw refunded)

81%

Lobi Stars (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abia Warriors at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.60 · 127 matches

Lobi Stars away — creates 0.53, concedes 1.48 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abia Warriors attack 1.50 + Lobi Stars defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.49

Lobi Stars attack 0.53 + Abia Warriors defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Abia Warriors scores more

60%

level

26%

Lobi Stars scores more

14%

Abia Warriors at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Abia Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff