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Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC — Pro League 2018

Abha
Abha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Al-Faisaly FC
Al-Faisaly FC
1/25/2020Pro LeaguePro League · Round 15Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Abha40%
×Draw26%
Al-Faisaly FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abha
1.43
Al-Faisaly FC
1.29

Abha creates 11% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 60 away

creates per match

Abha
1.32
Al-Faisaly FC
1.12

allows per match

Abha
1.47
Al-Faisaly FC
1.53

finishing

Abha+0.00on par
Al-Faisaly FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abha ↓

Al-Faisaly FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Abha or draw
66%
Abha or Al-Faisaly FC
74%
Draw or Al-Faisaly FC
60%

Winning margin

Abha wins by 2+
19%
Al-Faisaly FC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Abha 1+ goals
76%
Abha 2+ goals
42%
Abha 3+ goals
17%
Al-Faisaly FC 1+ goals
72%
Al-Faisaly FC 2+ goals
37%
Al-Faisaly FC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abha (draw refunded)
54%
Al-Faisaly FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abha at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.47 · 76 matches

Al-Faisaly FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abha attack 1.32 + Al-Faisaly FC defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.43

Al-Faisaly FC attack 1.12 + Abha defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Abha scores more
40%
level
26%
Al-Faisaly FC scores more
34%

Abha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Abha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abha vs Al-Faisaly FC

Al-Faisaly FC beat Abha 1-0 in Pro League on January 25, 2020.

The match was played at Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium in Abha.