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Aberystwyth Town vs Afan Lido — League #111 2026

Aberystwyth Town
Aberystwyth Town
Preview
14:30
Afan Lido
Afan Lido
3/20/2027League #111League #111 · South - 26Park Avenue
Big match
43%
Aberystwyth Town
model favours
43%24%33%

Aberystwyth Town sit 16, Afan Lido 3 in the table

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
58%
over 2.5 goals
60%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Aberystwyth Town43%
×Draw24%
Afan Lido33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberystwyth Town
1.62
Afan Lido
1.40

Aberystwyth Town creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 33 away

creates per match

Aberystwyth Town
1.00
Afan Lido
1.12

allows per match

Aberystwyth Town
1.67
Afan Lido
2.24

finishing

Aberystwyth Town+0.00on par
Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberystwyth Town ↓

Afan Lido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aberystwyth Town or draw
67%
Aberystwyth Town or Afan Lido
76%
Draw or Afan Lido
57%

Winning margin

Aberystwyth Town wins by 2+
22%
Afan Lido wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aberystwyth Town 1+ goals
80%
Aberystwyth Town 2+ goals
48%
Aberystwyth Town 3+ goals
22%
Afan Lido 1+ goals
75%
Afan Lido 2+ goals
41%
Afan Lido 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aberystwyth Town (draw refunded)
56%
Afan Lido (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberystwyth Town at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.67 · 3 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.24 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberystwyth Town attack 1.00 + Afan Lido defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 1.62

Afan Lido attack 1.12 + Aberystwyth Town defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aberystwyth Town scores more
43%
level
24%
Afan Lido scores more
33%

Aberystwyth Town at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aberystwyth Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 10 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Town
LWLLW
Lido
LLWWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aberystwyth Town face Afan Lido (League #111)

League #111 returns with Aberystwyth Town hosting Afan Lido. Match starts March 20, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Aberystwyth Town host Afan Lido at Park Avenue.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.