Aberystwyth Town 4–2 Afan Lido: Result & Stats

Aberystwyth Town

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Afan Lido

Glyndwr Hughes 66'

G. Cadwallader 59'

J. Follows 26'

W. Thomas 17'

A. Rawlings 77'

C. Hartland 63'

10/5/2012

League #110 · 1st Phase - 9Park Avenue Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Aberystwyth Town69%

×Draw15%

Afan Lido16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Aberystwyth TownExpected goals in this matchAfan Lido

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.12

1.47

Aberystwyth Town

3.12

Afan Lido

1.47

Aberystwyth Town creates 112% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

3.33

creates per match

1.60

1.33

allows per match

2.90

creates per match

Aberystwyth Town

3.33

Afan Lido

1.60

allows per match

Aberystwyth Town

1.33

Afan Lido

2.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberystwyth Town+0.00on par

Afan Lido+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberystwyth Town ↓

Afan Lido →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 81% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

66%34%4.5

46%54%

Double chance

Aberystwyth Town or draw

84%

Aberystwyth Town or Afan Lido

85%

Draw or Afan Lido

31%

Winning margin

Aberystwyth Town wins by 2+

50%

Afan Lido wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Aberystwyth Town 1+ goals

95%

Aberystwyth Town 2+ goals

81%

Aberystwyth Town 3+ goals

59%

Afan Lido 1+ goals

77%

Afan Lido 2+ goals

43%

Afan Lido 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Aberystwyth Town (draw refunded)

82%

Afan Lido (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberystwyth Town at home — creates 3.33, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Afan Lido away — creates 1.60, concedes 2.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberystwyth Town attack 3.33 + Afan Lido defence 2.90 → ÷2 → 3.12

Afan Lido attack 1.60 + Aberystwyth Town defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Aberystwyth Town scores more

69%

level

15%

Afan Lido scores more

16%

Aberystwyth Town at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Aberystwyth Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

W. Thomas

26'

J. Follows

29'

G. Cadwallader← W. Thomas

47'

J. MacAuley← D. Carroll

47'

C. Hartland← L. Borrelli

57'

R. Davies← B. Morgan

59'

G. Cadwallader

63'

M. Thompson← K. Howard

63'

C. Hartland

66'

Glyndwr Hughes

77'

A. Rawlings

90'

G. Jefferies← A. Gammond

Aberystwyth

Afan

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

29'▲G. Cadwallader←▼W. Thomas

47'▲J. MacAuley←▼D. Carroll

57'▲R. Davies←▼B. Morgan

Aberystwyth Town substitutes

CadwalladerMacAuleyDaviesBurrellJames

47'▲C. Hartland←▼L. Borrelli

63'▲M. Thompson←▼K. Howard

90'▲G. Jefferies←▼A. Gammond

Afan Lido substitutes

HartlandThompsonJefferiesHoulihanHodge

League #110: Aberystwyth Town 4–2 Afan Lido

Aberystwyth Town beat Afan Lido 4-2 in League #110 on October 5, 2012.

Goals: W. Thomas (17'), J. Follows (26'), G. Cadwallader (59'), C. Hartland (63'), Glyndwr Hughes (66'), A. Rawlings (77').

The match was played at Park Avenue Ground.

Aberystwyth Town vs Afan Lido — League #110 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #110: Aberystwyth Town 4–2 Afan Lido