Aberdeen 0–3 ST Mirren: Result & Stats

Aberdeen

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

ST Mirren

12/30/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 21Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Aberdeen39%

×Draw28%

ST Mirren33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchST Mirren

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.13

Aberdeen

1.25

ST Mirren

1.13

Aberdeen creates 11% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

1.17

creates per match

0.82

1.43

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.17

ST Mirren

0.82

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.43

ST Mirren

1.33

+0.38scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.38scores more

ST Mirren-0.02on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

ST Mirren →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

67%

Aberdeen or ST Mirren

72%

Draw or ST Mirren

61%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

17%

ST Mirren wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

71%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

36%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

13%

ST Mirren 1+ goals

68%

ST Mirren 2+ goals

31%

ST Mirren 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

54%

ST Mirren (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

ST Mirren away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.33 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.17 + ST Mirren defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

ST Mirren attack 0.82 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Aberdeen scores more

39%

level

28%

ST Mirren scores more

33%

Aberdeen at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff