Aberdeen 4–0 Ross County: Result & Stats

Aberdeen

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Ross County

9/24/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 6Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Aberdeen52%

×Draw25%

Ross County24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.00

Aberdeen

1.61

Ross County

1.00

Aberdeen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 92 away

1.46

creates per match

0.90

1.10

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.46

Ross County

0.90

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.10

Ross County

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Ross County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

76%

Aberdeen or Ross County

75%

Draw or Ross County

48%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

27%

Ross County wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

80%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

48%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

22%

Ross County 1+ goals

63%

Ross County 2+ goals

26%

Ross County 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

69%

Ross County (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.10 · 127 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.77 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.46 + Ross County defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.61

Ross County attack 0.90 + Aberdeen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Aberdeen scores more

52%

level

25%

Ross County scores more

24%

Aberdeen at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff