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Aberdeen vs Rangers — Premiership 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Rangers
Rangers
11/26/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 14Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Aberdeen32%
×Draw26%
Rangers42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.24
Rangers
1.46

Rangers creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
1.17
Rangers
1.48

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.43
Rangers
1.31

finishing

Aberdeen+0.38scores more
Rangers+0.67scores more

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
58%
Aberdeen or Rangers
74%
Draw or Rangers
68%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
14%
Rangers wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
71%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
35%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
13%
Rangers 1+ goals
77%
Rangers 2+ goals
43%
Rangers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
43%
Rangers (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

Rangers away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.31 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.17 + Rangers defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rangers attack 1.48 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aberdeen scores more
32%
level
26%
Rangers scores more
42%

Rangers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Aberdeen 1–1 Rangers

Aberdeen and Rangers drew 1-1 in Premiership on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.