Aberdeen 2–0 Rangers: Result & Stats | Premiership

Aberdeen

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rangers

B. Miovski 56'

L. Scales 48'

4/23/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 33Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Aberdeen29%

×Draw26%

Rangers46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchRangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.51

Aberdeen

1.14

Rangers

1.51

Rangers creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

1.59

1.43

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.06

Rangers

1.59

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.43

Rangers

1.22

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.48scores more than expected

finishing

Aberdeen+0.32scores more

Rangers+0.48scores more

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

54%

Aberdeen or Rangers

74%

Draw or Rangers

71%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

11%

Rangers wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

68%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

32%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

11%

Rangers 1+ goals

78%

Rangers 2+ goals

44%

Rangers 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

39%

Rangers (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches

Rangers away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.22 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.06 + Rangers defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Rangers attack 1.59 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Aberdeen scores more

29%

level

26%

Rangers scores more

46%

Rangers at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4

L. Scales

Aberdeen · D

8.2

Match Events

38'

Todd Cantwell

48'

L. Scales

56'

B. Miovski↳ L. Clarkson

64'

R. Matondo← N. Raskin

83'

Liam Scales

86'

Luís Henriques de Barros Lopes

87'

M. Watkins← Duk

88'

S. Arfield← F. Sakala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AberdeenRangers

Overview

25%Possession75%

11Total Shots20

3Corners7

17Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots20

4On Target3

3Off Target9

4Blocked8

9Inside Box13

2Outside Box7

Passing

25%Possession75%

208Total Passes638

111Accurate Passes533

53%Pass Accuracy84%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

1Offsides4