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Aberdeen vs Rangers — League Cup 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeenadvanced
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rangers
Rangers
10/28/2018League CupLeague Cup · Semi-finalsHampden Park (Glasgow)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Aberdeen50%
×Draw23%
Rangers27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.79
Rangers
1.27

Aberdeen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
2.70
Rangers
2.25

allows per match

Aberdeen
0.30
Rangers
0.88

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par
Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
73%
Aberdeen or Rangers
77%
Draw or Rangers
50%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
27%
Rangers wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
83%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
53%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
26%
Rangers 1+ goals
72%
Rangers 2+ goals
36%
Rangers 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
65%
Rangers (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.30 · 10 matches

Rangers away — creates 2.25, concedes 0.88 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 2.70 + Rangers defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rangers attack 2.25 + Aberdeen defence 0.30 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aberdeen scores more
50%
level
23%
Rangers scores more
27%

Aberdeen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Aberdeen 1–0 Rangers

Aberdeen beat Rangers 1-0 in League Cup on October 28, 2018.

The match was played at Hampden Park (Glasgow).