Aberdeen 5–0 Livingston: Result & Stats

Aberdeen

FT

5 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Livingston

R. Duncan 86'

B. Miovski 63', 42' (pen)

V. Besuijen 62' (pen)

R. McCrorie 58'

8/27/2022

Premiership · 1st Phase - 5Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Aberdeen42%

×Draw26%

Livingston32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchLivingston

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.25

Aberdeen

1.47

Livingston

1.25

Aberdeen creates 18% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

1.07

1.43

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.06

Livingston

1.07

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.43

Livingston

1.87

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Aberdeen+0.32scores more

Livingston-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Livingston →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

68%

Aberdeen or Livingston

74%

Draw or Livingston

58%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

20%

Livingston wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

77%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

43%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

18%

Livingston 1+ goals

71%

Livingston 2+ goals

36%

Livingston 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

57%

Livingston (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches

Livingston away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.06 + Livingston defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.47

Livingston attack 1.07 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Aberdeen scores more

42%

level

26%

Livingston scores more

32%

Aberdeen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

V. Besuijen

Aberdeen · M

9.0

Match Events

38'

Jason Holt

40'

Jack Fitzwater

42'

B. MiovskiPenalty

46'

P. Cancar← S. Kelly

56'

Duk← L. Clarkson

58'

R. McCrorie

61'

Phillip Čančar

62'

V. BesuijenPenalty

63'

B. Miovski↳ J. Hayes

65'

Cristian Montano

67'

J. Penrice← J. Holt

67'

J. Brandon← A. Shinnie

67'

J. Longridge← C. Montaño

67'

Esmael Gonçalves← J. Nouble

72'

S. Morris← J. Hayes

73'

M. Kennedy← V. Besuijen

79'

J. MacKenzie← H. Coulson

79'

R. Duncan← B. Miovski

86'

R. Duncan↳ A. Stewart

88'

Jamie Brandon

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AberdeenLivingston

Overview

58%Possession42%

20Total Shots7

8Corners3

2Fouls11

Shots

20Total Shots7

6On Target3

12Off Target3

2Blocked1

15Inside Box5

5Outside Box2

Passing

58%Possession42%

418Total Passes321

334Accurate Passes234

80%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

2Fouls11

0Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

1Offsides0