Aberdeen 3–1 Kilmarnock: Result & Stats | FA Cup

Aberdeen

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Kilmarnock

3/9/2024

FA Cup · Quarter-finalsPittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Aberdeen50%

×Draw27%

Kilmarnock23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchKilmarnock

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.90

Aberdeen

1.45

Kilmarnock

0.90

Aberdeen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.90

creates per match

1.29

0.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.90

Kilmarnock

1.29

allows per match

Aberdeen

0.50

Kilmarnock

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aberdeen+0.00on par

Kilmarnock+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Kilmarnock →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

77%

Aberdeen or Kilmarnock

73%

Draw or Kilmarnock

50%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

25%

Kilmarnock wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

77%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

42%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

18%

Kilmarnock 1+ goals

59%

Kilmarnock 2+ goals

23%

Kilmarnock 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

68%

Kilmarnock (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.90, concedes 0.50 · 10 matches

Kilmarnock away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.90 + Kilmarnock defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Kilmarnock attack 1.29 + Aberdeen defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Aberdeen scores more

50%

level

27%

Kilmarnock scores more

23%

Aberdeen at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Aberdeen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff