Aberdeen 0–0 Hibernian: Result & Stats

Aberdeen

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Hibernian

5/13/2023

Premiership · Championship Round - 2Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Aberdeen36%

×Draw27%

Hibernian37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AberdeenExpected goals in this matchHibernian

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

1.23

Aberdeen

1.20

Hibernian

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 15 away

1.06

creates per match

1.03

1.43

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Aberdeen

1.06

Hibernian

1.03

allows per match

Aberdeen

1.43

Hibernian

1.34

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

+0.44scores more than expected

finishing

Aberdeen+0.32scores more

Hibernian+0.44scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Hibernian →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw

63%

Aberdeen or Hibernian

73%

Draw or Hibernian

64%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+

15%

Hibernian wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals

70%

Aberdeen 2+ goals

34%

Aberdeen 3+ goals

12%

Hibernian 1+ goals

71%

Hibernian 2+ goals

35%

Hibernian 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)

49%

Hibernian (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.43 · 13 matches

Hibernian away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.34 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.06 + Hibernian defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.20

Hibernian attack 1.03 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Aberdeen scores more

36%

level

27%

Hibernian scores more

37%

Hibernian at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Hibernian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

K. Roos

Aberdeen · G

8.7

Match Events

1'

Liam Scales

39'

Joe Newell

52'

Josh Campbell

58'

D. Markanday← R. Duncan

60'

E. Henderson← J. Campbell

71'

S. Morris← Duk

73'

H. McKirdy← C. Cadden

78'

Hayden Coulson

78'

Harry McKirdyPenalty confirmed

82'

M. Watkins← B. Miovski

82'

J. Richardson← H. Coulson

88'

CJ Egan-Riley

88'

Harry McKirdy

90+3'

James Jeggo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AberdeenHibernian

Overview

47%Possession53%

8Total Shots17

3Corners8

10Fouls17

Shots

8Total Shots17

2On Target5

3Off Target6

3Blocked6

5Inside Box15

3Outside Box2

Passing

47%Possession53%

277Total Passes310

173Accurate Passes204

62%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

5Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls17

2Yellow Cards5

0Offsides1