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Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian — Premiership 2018

Aberdeen
Aberdeen
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Heart Of Midlothian
Heart Of Midlothian
12/9/2023PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 17Pittodrie Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Aberdeen27%
×Draw26%
Heart Of Midlothian48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aberdeen
1.07
Heart Of Midlothian
1.52

Heart Of Midlothian creates 42% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

creates per match

Aberdeen
1.17
Heart Of Midlothian
1.60

allows per match

Aberdeen
1.43
Heart Of Midlothian
0.98

finishing

Aberdeen+0.38scores more
Heart Of Midlothian-0.20scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aberdeen ↓

Heart Of Midlothian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–29%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Aberdeen or draw
52%
Aberdeen or Heart Of Midlothian
74%
Draw or Heart Of Midlothian
73%

Winning margin

Aberdeen wins by 2+
10%
Heart Of Midlothian wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Aberdeen 1+ goals
66%
Aberdeen 2+ goals
29%
Aberdeen 3+ goals
9%
Heart Of Midlothian 1+ goals
78%
Heart Of Midlothian 2+ goals
45%
Heart Of Midlothian 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Aberdeen (draw refunded)
36%
Heart Of Midlothian (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aberdeen at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.43 · 11 matches

Heart Of Midlothian away — creates 1.60, concedes 0.98 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aberdeen attack 1.17 + Heart Of Midlothian defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.07

Heart Of Midlothian attack 1.60 + Aberdeen defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aberdeen scores more
27%
level
26%
Heart Of Midlothian scores more
48%

Heart Of Midlothian at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Heart Of Midlothian will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Aberdeen 2–1 Heart Of Midlothian

Aberdeen beat Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 in Premiership on December 9, 2023.

The match was played at Pittodrie Stadium in Aberdeen.