ABC 4–0 Confiança: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Confiança

Erivélton 81'

Marcos Júnior 60'

Higor Leite 53'

Luan 31' (pen)

7/14/2018

Serie C · Round 14Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ABC47%

×Draw27%

Confiança26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchConfiança

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.94

ABC

1.38

Confiança

0.94

ABC creates 47% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 68 away

1.35

creates per match

0.81

1.06

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Confiança

0.81

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Confiança

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Confiança+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Confiança →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

ABC or draw

74%

ABC or Confiança

73%

Draw or Confiança

53%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

23%

Confiança wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

75%

ABC 2+ goals

40%

ABC 3+ goals

16%

Confiança 1+ goals

61%

Confiança 2+ goals

24%

Confiança 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

65%

Confiança (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Confiança away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.41 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Confiança defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Confiança attack 0.81 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

ABC scores more

47%

level

27%

Confiança scores more

26%

ABC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'

LuanPenalty

50'

Rodrigo Rodrigues← Leandrão

53'

Higor Leite

59'

Ítalo Melo← Raí

60'

Marcos Júnior

62'

C. Frontini← Tito

63'

Erivélton← Luan

74'

Leomir← Anderson Pedra

74'

Caxito← Everton

81'

Erivélton

ABC

Confiança

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

Luan

Manager: Ranielle Ribeiro

50'▲Rodrigo Rodrigues←▼Leandrão

63'▲Erivélton←▼Luan

74'▲Leomir←▼Anderson Pedra

ABC substitutes

RodriguesErivéltonLeomirCearenseCardosoDanielBohnJardelLauderCarvalhoRafinhaSamuel

Manager: Luizinho Lopes

59'▲Ítalo Melo←▼Raí

62'▲C. Frontini←▼Tito

74'▲Caxito←▼Everton

Confiança substitutes

MeloFrontiniCaxitoGilsinhoHenriqueViniciusSilvyWeverton

Serie C: ABC 4–0 Confiança

ABC beat Confiança 4-0 in Serie C on July 14, 2018.

Goals: Luan (31' pen), Higor Leite (53'), Marcos Júnior (60'), Erivélton (81').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte).

ABC vs Confiança — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: ABC 4–0 Confiança