ABC 1–2 Botafogo PB: Result & Stats | Serie C

ABC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Botafogo PB

Hélio Paraíba 75'

Kelvin 90+4'

Dico 87'

5/19/2019

Serie C · Round 4Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

ABC42%

×Draw29%

Botafogo PB29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ABCExpected goals in this matchBotafogo PB

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.96

ABC

1.23

Botafogo PB

0.96

ABC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 52 home / 88 away

1.35

creates per match

0.86

1.06

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

ABC

1.35

Botafogo PB

0.86

allows per match

ABC

1.06

Botafogo PB

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

ABC+0.00on par

Botafogo PB+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

ABC ↓

Botafogo PB →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

ABC or draw

71%

ABC or Botafogo PB

71%

Draw or Botafogo PB

58%

Winning margin

ABC wins by 2+

19%

Botafogo PB wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

ABC 1+ goals

71%

ABC 2+ goals

35%

ABC 3+ goals

13%

Botafogo PB 1+ goals

62%

Botafogo PB 2+ goals

25%

Botafogo PB 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

ABC (draw refunded)

60%

Botafogo PB (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

ABC at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.06 · 52 matches

Botafogo PB away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.10 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

ABC attack 1.35 + Botafogo PB defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.23

Botafogo PB attack 0.86 + ABC defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

ABC scores more

42%

level

29%

Botafogo PB scores more

29%

ABC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "ABC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Jefinho← Luan Ferreira

66'

69'

75'

78'

80'

Anderson Pedra← Hélio Paraíba

81'

Erivélton← Clayton

87'

Dico

90+4'

Kelvin

ABC

Botafogo

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Paraíba

▼

Ferreira

▼

Anderson

Manager: Sérgio Soares

46'▲Jefinho←▼Luan Ferreira

69'▲B. Sagredo←▼Anderson

80'▲Anderson Pedra←▼Hélio Paraíba

ABC substitutes

JefinhoSagredoPedraEvandroHenriqueCampagnoloMossoróNetoSauloWandersonXavierYan

Manager: Evaristo Piza

66'▲Dico←▼Felipe Alves

78'▲Kelvin←▼Wellington

81'▲Erivélton←▼Clayton

Botafogo PB substitutes

DicoKelvinErivéltonGuilhermeCharlesDonatoEnercinoHiagoViniciusGoiano

Match Recap: ABC vs Botafogo PB

Botafogo PB beat ABC 2-1 in Serie C on May 19, 2019.

Goals: Hélio Paraíba (75'), Dico (87'), Kelvin (90+4').

The match was played at Estádio Maria Lamas Farache (Natal, Rio Grande do Norte).

ABC vs Botafogo PB — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: ABC vs Botafogo PB