AB Copenhagen 3–2 Roskilde: Result & Stats

AB Copenhagen

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Roskilde

F. Ellegaard 90+4' (pen), 39'

M. Gudmann 77'

V. Schousboe 66', 48'

11/13/2022

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 15Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

AB Copenhagen46%

×Draw24%

Roskilde30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AB CopenhagenExpected goals in this matchRoskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.32

AB Copenhagen

1.67

Roskilde

1.32

AB Copenhagen creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 46 away

2.00

creates per match

1.43

1.22

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

AB Copenhagen

2.00

Roskilde

1.43

allows per match

AB Copenhagen

1.22

Roskilde

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par

Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw

70%

AB Copenhagen or Roskilde

76%

Draw or Roskilde

54%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+

24%

Roskilde wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals

81%

AB Copenhagen 2+ goals

50%

AB Copenhagen 3+ goals

23%

Roskilde 1+ goals

73%

Roskilde 2+ goals

38%

Roskilde 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)

60%

Roskilde (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.00 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Roskilde attack 1.43 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more

46%

level

24%

Roskilde scores more

30%

AB Copenhagen at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

F. Ellegaard

48'

V. Schousboe

66'

V. Schousboe

77'

M. Gudmann

90+4'

F. EllegaardPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff