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AB Copenhagen vs Naestved — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Naestved
Naestved
A. Hlynsson 69'
F. Christensen 11'
8/3/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 1Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

AB Copenhagen49%
×Draw24%
Naestved27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
1.71
Naestved
1.21

AB Copenhagen creates 41% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 44 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
2.00
Naestved
1.18

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
1.24
Naestved
1.41

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
Naestved+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

Naestved →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
73%
AB Copenhagen or Naestved
76%
Draw or Naestved
51%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
26%
Naestved wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
82%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
51%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
24%
Naestved 1+ goals
70%
Naestved 2+ goals
34%
Naestved 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
64%
Naestved (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 76 matches

Naestved away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.41 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.00 + Naestved defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Naestved attack 1.18 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
49%
level
24%
Naestved scores more
27%

AB Copenhagen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
F. Christensen
19'
P. Banda
32'
M. Freitag← P. Allentoft
38'
C. Wagner
54'
H. Askham← Y. Liesdek
63'
D. Pedersen
64'
S. Ilsoe← F. Dzelili
64'
O. Mullings← D. Sidoel
69'
A. Hlynsson
71'
A. Hlynsson
71'
F. Christensen
78'
A. Jonasson
81'
M. Christiansen← M. Melgaard
84'
I. Hassan
90+3'
C. Wagner← E. Mygind
90+3'
R. Brodersen
90+4'
M. Rugaard← M. Rugaard

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: AB Copenhagen 1–1 Naestved

AB Copenhagen and Naestved drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 3, 2024.

Goals: F. Christensen (11'), A. Hlynsson (69').

The match was played at Gladsaxe Stadion in Søborg.