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AB Copenhagen vs HIK — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
1 – 1
HIK
HIK
R. Moller 54'
G. Lauritzen-Arndal 90+6'
8/18/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 3Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

AB Copenhagen54%
×Draw22%
HIK24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
1.91
HIK
1.19

AB Copenhagen creates 61% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 84 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
2.00
HIK
1.15

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
1.22
HIK
1.82

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
HIK+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

HIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
76%
AB Copenhagen or HIK
78%
Draw or HIK
46%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
31%
HIK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
85%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
57%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
30%
HIK 1+ goals
70%
HIK 2+ goals
33%
HIK 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
70%
HIK (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

HIK away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.82 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.00 + HIK defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.91

HIK attack 1.15 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
54%
level
22%
HIK scores more
24%

AB Copenhagen at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'
R. Moller
90+6'
G. Lauritzen-Arndal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AB Copenhagen 1 – 1 HIK

AB Copenhagen and HIK drew 1-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 18, 2021.

Goals: R. Moller (54'), G. Lauritzen-Arndal (90+6').

The match was played at Gladsaxe Stadion in Søborg.