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AB Copenhagen vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

AB Copenhagen
AB Copenhagen
FT
1 – 2
B 93
B 93
E. Wass 15'
J. Erenbjerg 70'
S. Dhaflaoui 60'
9/26/20212nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Gladsaxe Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

AB Copenhagen42%
×Draw24%
B 9334%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

AB Copenhagen
1.64
B 93
1.46

AB Copenhagen creates 12% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 48 away

creates per match

AB Copenhagen
2.00
B 93
1.71

allows per match

AB Copenhagen
1.22
B 93
1.27

finishing

AB Copenhagen+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AB Copenhagen ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

AB Copenhagen or draw
66%
AB Copenhagen or B 93
76%
Draw or B 93
58%

Winning margin

AB Copenhagen wins by 2+
21%
B 93 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

AB Copenhagen 1+ goals
81%
AB Copenhagen 2+ goals
49%
AB Copenhagen 3+ goals
23%
B 93 1+ goals
77%
B 93 2+ goals
43%
B 93 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

AB Copenhagen (draw refunded)
55%
B 93 (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AB Copenhagen at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.22 · 77 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AB Copenhagen attack 2.00 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

B 93 attack 1.71 + AB Copenhagen defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

AB Copenhagen scores more
42%
level
24%
B 93 scores more
34%

AB Copenhagen at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "AB Copenhagen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
E. Wass
60'
S. Dhaflaoui
70'
J. Erenbjerg

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: AB Copenhagen vs B 93

B 93 beat AB Copenhagen 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on September 26, 2021.

Goals: E. Wass (15'), S. Dhaflaoui (60'), J. Erenbjerg (70').

The match was played at Gladsaxe Stadion in Søborg.