Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland — Superliga 2018

Aarhus
Aarhus
FT
4 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
FC Nordsjaelland
FC Nordsjaelland
F. Tingager 89'
M. Anderson 53'
T. Bech 49'
M. Ingvartsen 10' (OG)
S. Egeli 16'
B. Nygren 11'
8/31/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 7Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 19+ matches

Aarhus53%
×Draw22%
FC Nordsjaelland24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus
1.92
FC Nordsjaelland
1.23

Aarhus creates 56% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 21 away

creates per match

Aarhus
2.14
FC Nordsjaelland
1.30

allows per match

Aarhus
1.15
FC Nordsjaelland
1.69

finishing

Aarhus-0.14scores less
FC Nordsjaelland+0.03on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw
76%
Aarhus or FC Nordsjaelland
78%
Draw or FC Nordsjaelland
47%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+
31%
FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals
85%
Aarhus 2+ goals
57%
Aarhus 3+ goals
30%
FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals
71%
FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals
35%
FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)
69%
FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.15 · 19 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.69 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.14 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.30 + Aarhus defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Aarhus scores more
53%
level
22%
FC Nordsjaelland scores more
24%

Aarhus at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
M. AndersonAarhusAarhus · M
7.9

Match Events

10'
M. IngvartsenOwn goal
11'
B. Nygren↳ C. Harder
16'
S. Egeli↳ L. Hey
44'
Eric Kahl
46'
L. Høgsberg← K. Hansen
49'
T. Bech↳ M. Anderson
53'
M. Anderson↳ N. Poulsen
57'
J. Andersen← G. Links
63'
Zidan Sertdemir
65'
Tobias Bech
65'
Mario Dorgeles
65'
M. Hansen← Z. Sertdemir
76'
Jeppe Tverskov
76'
Lucas Høgsberg
77'
L. Nene← M. Ingvartsen
77'
E. Marxen← J. Tverskov
79'
F. Brandhof← M. Madsen
79'
T. Bach← J. Jensen-Abbew
89'
F. Tingager↳ F. Beijmo
90+8'
L. Callø← N. Poulsen
90+1'
A. Mohammed← S. Egeli

Possession

44%Aarhus

Shots

11Aarhus

Pass accuracy

49%Aarhus

Statistics

AarhusFC
Overview
44%Possession56%
11Total Shots10
1.36Expected Goals (xG)1.51
7Corners5
9Fouls13
Shots
11Total Shots10
5On Target5
2Off Target3
4Blocked2
6Inside Box6
5Outside Box4
Passing
44%Possession56%
394Total Passes519
332Accurate Passes457
84%Pass Accuracy88%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls13
2Yellow Cards4
0Offsides2

Match Recap: Aarhus vs FC Nordsjaelland

Aarhus beat FC Nordsjaelland 4-2 in Superliga on August 31, 2024.

Goals: M. Ingvartsen (10' o.g.), B. Nygren (11'), S. Egeli (16'), T. Bech (49'), M. Anderson (53'), F. Tingager (89').

FC Nordsjaelland controlled possession (56%) and registered 10 shots to 11.

The match was played at Ceres Park & Arena in Århus.