Aarhus 2–3 FC Nordsjaelland: Result & Stats

Aarhus

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

FC Nordsjaelland

M. Anderson 48'

A. Grønbæk 19'

S. Adingra 80'

M. Hansen 75'

J. Hansen 31' (OG)

3/7/2022

Superliga · Round 20Ceres Park & Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Aarhus51%

×Draw23%

FC Nordsjaelland26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AarhusExpected goals in this matchFC Nordsjaelland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.30

Aarhus

1.89

FC Nordsjaelland

1.30

Aarhus creates 45% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 26 away

2.16

creates per match

1.42

1.18

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Aarhus

2.16

FC Nordsjaelland

1.42

allows per match

Aarhus

1.18

FC Nordsjaelland

1.62

-0.08on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aarhus-0.08on par

FC Nordsjaelland+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus ↓

FC Nordsjaelland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Aarhus or draw

74%

Aarhus or FC Nordsjaelland

77%

Draw or FC Nordsjaelland

49%

Winning margin

Aarhus wins by 2+

29%

FC Nordsjaelland wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Aarhus 1+ goals

85%

Aarhus 2+ goals

56%

Aarhus 3+ goals

29%

FC Nordsjaelland 1+ goals

73%

FC Nordsjaelland 2+ goals

37%

FC Nordsjaelland 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Aarhus (draw refunded)

66%

FC Nordsjaelland (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus at home — creates 2.16, concedes 1.18 · 24 matches

FC Nordsjaelland away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.62 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus attack 2.16 + FC Nordsjaelland defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.89

FC Nordsjaelland attack 1.42 + Aarhus defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Aarhus scores more

51%

level

23%

FC Nordsjaelland scores more

26%

Aarhus at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Aarhus will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Anderson

Aarhus · M

7.7

Match Events

18'

Andreas Schjelderup

19'

A. Grønbæk↳ E. Kahl

24'

Eric Kahl

31'

J. HansenOwn goal

42'

Mads HansenGoal cancelled

48'

M. Anderson

55'

D. Svensson← O. Villadsen

73'

F. Brandhof← A. Grønbæk

73'

S. Adingra← B. Nygren

73'

O. Antman← A. Schjelderup

75'

M. Hansen

80'

S. Adingra↳ O. Antman

81'

D. Kurminowski← P. Mortensen

81'

J. Wilshere← J. Þorsteinsson

86'

J. Christensen← M. Bidstrup

86'

A. Nagalo← M. Frese

90+5'

Mohammed Diomande

90+3'

Simon Adingra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AarhusFC

Overview

40%Possession60%

10Total Shots9

4Corners2

10Fouls6

Shots

10Total Shots9

2On Target4

7Off Target3

1Blocked2

7Inside Box5

3Outside Box4

Passing

40%Possession60%

381Total Passes586

275Accurate Passes473

72%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

10Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides2