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Aarhus Fremad vs B 93 — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
B 93
B 93
L. Hauge Mortensen 74'
M. Kubel 14'
10/23/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 12Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Aarhus Fremad43%
×Draw24%
B 9333%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.64
B 93
1.40

Aarhus Fremad creates 17% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.01
B 93
1.71

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.09
B 93
1.27

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
B 93+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

B 93 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
67%
Aarhus Fremad or B 93
76%
Draw or B 93
57%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
22%
B 93 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
81%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
49%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
23%
B 93 1+ goals
75%
B 93 2+ goals
41%
B 93 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
57%
B 93 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.09 · 78 matches

B 93 away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.27 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.01 + B 93 defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.64

B 93 attack 1.71 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
43%
level
24%
B 93 scores more
33%

Aarhus Fremad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
M. Kubel
74'
L. Hauge Mortensen

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Aarhus Fremad 2–0 B 93

Aarhus Fremad beat B 93 2-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on October 23, 2022.

Goals: M. Kubel (14'), L. Hauge Mortensen (74').

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.