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Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg — 1. Division 2026

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
Preview
16:00
Aalborg
Aalborg
7/31/20261. Division1. Division · Round 2Riisvangen
49%
Aarhus Fremad
model favours
49%24%28%

Aalborg score first in only 13% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Aarhus Fremad49%
×Draw24%
Aalborg28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.73
Aalborg
1.25

Aarhus Fremad creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 32 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.06
Aalborg
1.56

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
0.94
Aalborg
1.41

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Aalborg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 57Under: 4357%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 59No: 4159%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Aalborg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
72%
Aarhus Fremad or Aalborg
76%
Draw or Aalborg
51%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
26%
Aalborg wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
82%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
52%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
25%
Aalborg 1+ goals
71%
Aalborg 2+ goals
36%
Aalborg 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
64%
Aalborg (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.94 · 16 matches

Aalborg away — creates 1.56, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.06 + Aalborg defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.73

Aalborg attack 1.56 + Aarhus Fremad defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
49%
level
24%
Aalborg scores more
28%

Aarhus Fremad at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aarhus Fremad have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Both teams score in 73% of Aarhus Fremad’s matches
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Fremad
LWLLD
Aalborg
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aarhus Fremad vs Aalborg — Match Preview

Aarhus Fremad face Aalborg on July 31, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Aarhus Fremad host Aalborg at Riisvangen.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.