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Aalesund II vs Byåsen — 3. Division - Girone 2 2020

Aalesund II
Aalesund II
Preview
14:00
Byåsen
Byåsen
10/17/20263. Division - Girone 23. Division - Girone 2 · Round 24
58%
Aalesund II
model favours
58%19%23%

Aalesund II win just 35% against the top half (vs 71% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

2–1
likely score
77%
over 2.5 goals
73%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Aalesund II58%
×Draw19%
Byåsen23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalesund II
2.52
Byåsen
1.56

Aalesund II creates 62% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 19 away

creates per match

Aalesund II
2.84
Byåsen
1.32

allows per match

Aalesund II
1.81
Byåsen
2.21

finishing

Aalesund II+0.00on par
Byåsen+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalesund II ↓

Byåsen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
58%42%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Aalesund II or draw
77%
Aalesund II or Byåsen
81%
Draw or Byåsen
42%

Winning margin

Aalesund II wins by 2+
37%
Byåsen wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aalesund II 1+ goals
92%
Aalesund II 2+ goals
71%
Aalesund II 3+ goals
45%
Byåsen 1+ goals
79%
Byåsen 2+ goals
46%
Byåsen 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Aalesund II (draw refunded)
71%
Byåsen (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalesund II at home — creates 2.84, concedes 1.81 · 31 matches

Byåsen away — creates 1.32, concedes 2.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalesund II attack 2.84 + Byåsen defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 2.52

Byåsen attack 1.32 + Aalesund II defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Aalesund II scores more
58%
level
19%
Byåsen scores more
23%

Aalesund II at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Aalesund II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
II
LLWWW
Byåsen
WLWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Aalesund II host Byåsen

October 17, 2026: Aalesund II take on Byåsen in 3. Division - Girone 2. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.