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Aalborg vs Hillerød — 1. Division 2018

Aalborg
Aalborg
Preview
17:00
Hillerød
Hillerød
7/24/20261. Division1. Division · Round 1Aalborg Portland Park
48%
Aalborg
model favours
48%23%29%

Aalborg score first in only 7% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
61%
over 2.5 goals
62%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Aalborg48%
×Draw23%
Hillerød29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aalborg
1.81
Hillerød
1.36

Aalborg creates 33% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 64 away

creates per match

Aalborg
2.06
Hillerød
1.47

allows per match

Aalborg
1.25
Hillerød
1.56

finishing

Aalborg+0.00on par
Hillerød+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aalborg ↓

Hillerød →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Aalborg or draw
71%
Aalborg or Hillerød
77%
Draw or Hillerød
52%

Winning margin

Aalborg wins by 2+
26%
Hillerød wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Aalborg 1+ goals
84%
Aalborg 2+ goals
54%
Aalborg 3+ goals
27%
Hillerød 1+ goals
74%
Hillerød 2+ goals
39%
Hillerød 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Aalborg (draw refunded)
62%
Hillerød (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aalborg at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.25 · 32 matches

Hillerød away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.56 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aalborg attack 2.06 + Hillerød defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.81

Hillerød attack 1.47 + Aalborg defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aalborg scores more
48%
level
23%
Hillerød scores more
29%

Aalborg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aalborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Aalborg raise their game against the top half — 50% wins vs the upper half, only 45% vs the lower
  • Both teams score in 73% of Aalborg’s matches
  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 4 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Aalborg
LDWWL
Hillerød
LDLWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Aalborg vs Hillerød — Match Preview

Aalborg face Hillerød on July 24, 2026 in this 1. Division fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Aalborg host Hillerød at Aalborg Portland Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.