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3 de Febrero vs Sportivo Iteno — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
PST
22:00
Sportivo Iteno
Sportivo Iteno
9/19/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 27Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

3 de Febrero47%
×Draw25%
Sportivo Iteno28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.54
Sportivo Iteno
1.12

3 de Febrero creates 38% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 63 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Sportivo Iteno
0.98

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Sportivo Iteno
1.81

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Sportivo Iteno+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Sportivo Iteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
72%
3 de Febrero or Sportivo Iteno
75%
Draw or Sportivo Iteno
53%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
24%
Sportivo Iteno wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
79%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
45%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
20%
Sportivo Iteno 1+ goals
67%
Sportivo Iteno 2+ goals
31%
Sportivo Iteno 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
63%
Sportivo Iteno (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Sportivo Iteno away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.81 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Sportivo Iteno defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.54

Sportivo Iteno attack 0.98 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
47%
level
25%
Sportivo Iteno scores more
28%

3 de Febrero at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3 de Febrero face Sportivo Iteno (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with 3 de Febrero hosting Sportivo Iteno. Match starts September 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

3 de Febrero host Sportivo Iteno at Estadio Antonio Aranda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.