3 de Febrero vs General Caballero — Division Intermedia 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 53+ matches
3 de Febrero39%
General Caballero34%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 78 home / 53 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under52
- Over48
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
3 de Febrero ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches
General Caballero away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.42 · 53 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + General Caballero defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.35
General Caballero attack 1.25 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
3 de Febrero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Club River Plate
Club Sp. San Lorenzo
Fernando De La Mora
Guairena FC
2 De Mayo
Rubio NU
Fulgencio Yegros
Resistencia
Deportivo Liberacion
Sportivo Trinidense
Ri 3 Corrales
Ovetense FCGeneral Caballero
Sportivo Iteno
Deportivo Caaguazu
Martin LedesmaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
3 de Febrero host General Caballero on Sunday, 5 April 2020 at 00:00. The match is part of the Division Intermedia 2018/2019 season.
3 de Febrero face General Caballero (Division Intermedia)
Division Intermedia returns with 3 de Febrero hosting General Caballero. Match starts April 5, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.
3 de Febrero host General Caballero at Estadio Antonio Aranda.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.