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3 de Febrero vs Fulgencio Yegros — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
PST
22:00
Fulgencio Yegros
Fulgencio Yegros
5/16/2020Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

3 de Febrero45%
×Draw26%
Fulgencio Yegros28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.44
Fulgencio Yegros
1.08

3 de Febrero creates 33% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 48 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Fulgencio Yegros
0.90

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Fulgencio Yegros
1.60

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Fulgencio Yegros+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Fulgencio Yegros →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
72%
3 de Febrero or Fulgencio Yegros
74%
Draw or Fulgencio Yegros
55%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
22%
Fulgencio Yegros wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
76%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
42%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
18%
Fulgencio Yegros 1+ goals
66%
Fulgencio Yegros 2+ goals
29%
Fulgencio Yegros 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
62%
Fulgencio Yegros (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Fulgencio Yegros away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.60 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Fulgencio Yegros defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fulgencio Yegros attack 0.90 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
45%
level
26%
Fulgencio Yegros scores more
28%

3 de Febrero at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3 de Febrero face Fulgencio Yegros (Division Intermedia)

Division Intermedia returns with 3 de Febrero hosting Fulgencio Yegros. Match starts May 16, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

3 de Febrero host Fulgencio Yegros at Estadio Antonio Aranda.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.