Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

3 de Febrero vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2018

3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
J. Echeverria 90+4'
J. Silva 53'
7/1/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 15Estadio Antonio Aranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

3 de Febrero39%
×Draw27%
Deportivo Santani34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3 de Febrero
1.31
Deportivo Santani
1.19

3 de Febrero creates 10% more chances

Season form · 78 home / 85 away

creates per match

3 de Febrero
1.28
Deportivo Santani
1.13

allows per match

3 de Febrero
1.26
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

3 de Febrero+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

3 de Febrero ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

3 de Febrero or draw
66%
3 de Febrero or Deportivo Santani
73%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
61%

Winning margin

3 de Febrero wins by 2+
18%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

3 de Febrero 1+ goals
73%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
38%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
14%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
33%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
54%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

3 de Febrero at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.26 · 78 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

3 de Febrero attack 1.28 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Deportivo Santani attack 1.13 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

3 de Febrero scores more
39%
level
27%
Deportivo Santani scores more
34%

3 de Febrero at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "3 de Febrero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

53'
J. Silva
90+4'
J. Echeverria

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: 3 de Febrero 2–0 Deportivo Santani

3 de Febrero beat Deportivo Santani 2-0 in Division Intermedia on July 1, 2022.

Goals: J. Silva (53'), J. Echeverria (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Antonio Aranda in Ciudad del Este.