2 de Mayo 2–1 Sportivo Trinidense: Result & Stats

2 de Mayo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sportivo Trinidense

1/25/2024

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 2Estadio Monumental Río Parapití

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

2 de Mayo33%

×Draw28%

Sportivo Trinidense39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2 de MayoExpected goals in this matchSportivo Trinidense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.24

2 de Mayo

1.13

Sportivo Trinidense

1.24

Sportivo Trinidense creates 10% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 44 away

0.91

creates per match

1.39

1.09

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

2 de Mayo

0.91

Sportivo Trinidense

1.39

allows per match

2 de Mayo

1.09

Sportivo Trinidense

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par

Sportivo Trinidense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Sportivo Trinidense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw

61%

2 de Mayo or Sportivo Trinidense

72%

Draw or Sportivo Trinidense

67%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+

13%

Sportivo Trinidense wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals

68%

2 de Mayo 2+ goals

31%

2 de Mayo 3+ goals

11%

Sportivo Trinidense 1+ goals

71%

Sportivo Trinidense 2+ goals

35%

Sportivo Trinidense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)

46%

Sportivo Trinidense (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 33 matches

Sportivo Trinidense away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 0.91 + Sportivo Trinidense defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.13

Sportivo Trinidense attack 1.39 + 2 de Mayo defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

2 de Mayo scores more

33%

level

28%

Sportivo Trinidense scores more

39%

Sportivo Trinidense at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sportivo Trinidense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff