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2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteno — Division Profesional - Clausura 2026

2 de Mayo
2 de Mayo
Preview
21:30
Cerro Porteno
Cerro Porteno
7/28/2026Division Profesional - ClausuraDivision Profesional - Clausura · Clausura - 2
Big match
38%
2 de Mayo
model favours
38%32%29%

Cerro Porteno score first in only 30% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
72%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

2 de Mayo38%
×Draw32%
Cerro Porteno29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2 de Mayo
1.00
Cerro Porteno
0.83

2 de Mayo creates 20% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

2 de Mayo
0.67
Cerro Porteno
1.67

allows per match

2 de Mayo
0.00
Cerro Porteno
1.33

finishing

2 de Mayo+0.00on par
Cerro Porteno+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 72Over: 2872%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 64Yes: 3664%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

2 de Mayo ↓

Cerro Porteno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

2 de Mayo or draw
71%
2 de Mayo or Cerro Porteno
68%
Draw or Cerro Porteno
62%

Winning margin

2 de Mayo wins by 2+
15%
Cerro Porteno wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

2 de Mayo 1+ goals
63%
2 de Mayo 2+ goals
26%
2 de Mayo 3+ goals
8%
Cerro Porteno 1+ goals
56%
Cerro Porteno 2+ goals
20%
Cerro Porteno 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

2 de Mayo (draw refunded)
57%
Cerro Porteno (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

2 de Mayo at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Cerro Porteno away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

2 de Mayo attack 0.67 + Cerro Porteno defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.00

Cerro Porteno attack 1.67 + 2 de Mayo defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

2 de Mayo scores more
38%
level
32%
Cerro Porteno scores more
29%

2 de Mayo at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "2 de Mayo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Mayo
WLDWW
Porteno
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2 de Mayo vs Cerro Porteno — Match Preview

2 de Mayo face Cerro Porteno on July 28, 2026 in this Division Profesional - Clausura fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.