1860 München U19 1–2 Bayern München U19

1860 München U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Bayern München U19

S. Dulic 67'

B. Dibrani 43'

G. Dettoni 8'

3/25/2023

U19 Bundesliga · Special Stage - Preliminary Round - 1Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

1860 München U1931%

×Draw21%

Bayern München U1948%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1860 München U19Expected goals in this matchBayern München U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

2.13

1860 München U19

1.71

Bayern München U19

2.13

Bayern München U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 72 away

1.76

creates per match

2.63

1.64

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

1860 München U19

1.76

Bayern München U19

2.63

allows per match

1860 München U19

1.64

Bayern München U19

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1860 München U19+0.00on par

Bayern München U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1860 München U19 ↓

Bayern München U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

1860 München U19 or draw

52%

1860 München U19 or Bayern München U19

79%

Draw or Bayern München U19

69%

Winning margin

1860 München U19 wins by 2+

15%

Bayern München U19 wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

1860 München U19 1+ goals

82%

1860 München U19 2+ goals

51%

1860 München U19 3+ goals

24%

Bayern München U19 1+ goals

88%

Bayern München U19 2+ goals

63%

Bayern München U19 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

1860 München U19 (draw refunded)

40%

Bayern München U19 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1860 München U19 at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.64 · 55 matches

Bayern München U19 away — creates 2.63, concedes 1.67 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1860 München U19 attack 1.76 + Bayern München U19 defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.71

Bayern München U19 attack 2.63 + 1860 München U19 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

1860 München U19 scores more

31%

level

21%

Bayern München U19 scores more

48%

Bayern München U19 at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bayern München U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

G. Dettoni

43'

B. Dibrani

46'

M. Schuhbauer← M. Pisano

62'

C. Naveen← E. Samey

67'

S. Dulic

73'

B. Emci← V. Manuba

73'

G. Gonzalez← Y. Qashi

83'

T. Schatto← N. Klose

86'

P. Scholl← B. Dibrani

90'

J. Dosi← R. Ott

1860

Bayern

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Schittenhelm

62'▲C. Naveen←▼E. Samey

83'▲T. Schatto←▼N. Klose

90'▲J. Dosi←▼R. Ott

1860 München U19 substitutes

NaveenSchattoDosiQelaKiefersauer

Manager: D. Galm

46'▲M. Schuhbauer←▼M. Pisano

73'▲B. Emci←▼V. Manuba

73'▲G. Gonzalez←▼Y. Qashi

86'▲P. Scholl←▼B. Dibrani

Bayern München U19 substitutes

SchuhbauerEmciGonzalezSchollBöhmeke

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 1–2 Bayern München U19

Bayern München U19 beat 1860 München U19 2-1 in U19 Bundesliga on March 25, 2023.

Goals: G. Dettoni (8'), B. Dibrani (43'), S. Dulic (67').

The match was played at Trainingsgelände TSV 1860 - Platz 5 in München.

1860 München U19 vs Bayern München U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: 1860 München U19 1–2 Bayern München U19