1. Maj Ruma 1–0 FK Becej: Result & Stats

1. Maj Ruma

FT

1 – 0

FK Becej

9/12/2020

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 6Stadion Maj Ruma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

1. Maj Ruma57%

×Draw23%

FK Becej21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

1. Maj RumaExpected goals in this matchFK Becej

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

1.03

1. Maj Ruma

1.87

FK Becej

1.03

1. Maj Ruma creates 82% more chances

Season form · 72 home / 88 away

1.25

creates per match

1.16

0.90

allows per match

2.49

creates per match

1. Maj Ruma

1.25

FK Becej

1.16

allows per match

1. Maj Ruma

0.90

FK Becej

2.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

1. Maj Ruma+0.00on par

FK Becej+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1. Maj Ruma ↓

FK Becej →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

1. Maj Ruma or draw

79%

1. Maj Ruma or FK Becej

77%

Draw or FK Becej

43%

Winning margin

1. Maj Ruma wins by 2+

33%

FK Becej wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

1. Maj Ruma 1+ goals

85%

1. Maj Ruma 2+ goals

56%

1. Maj Ruma 3+ goals

29%

FK Becej 1+ goals

64%

FK Becej 2+ goals

28%

FK Becej 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

1. Maj Ruma (draw refunded)

73%

FK Becej (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1. Maj Ruma at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.90 · 72 matches

FK Becej away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.49 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1. Maj Ruma attack 1.25 + FK Becej defence 2.49 → ÷2 → 1.87

FK Becej attack 1.16 + 1. Maj Ruma defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

1. Maj Ruma scores more

57%

level

23%

FK Becej scores more

21%

1. Maj Ruma at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "1. Maj Ruma will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff