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1º Dezembro vs Sintrense — Taça de Portugal 2018

1º Dezembro
1º Dezembro
FT
1 – 2
Sintrense
Sintrense
9/9/2018Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundCampo Conde de Sucena (Sintra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

1º Dezembro28%
×Draw23%
Sintrense49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1º Dezembro
1.30
Sintrense
1.80

Sintrense creates 38% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

1º Dezembro
1.20
Sintrense
1.60

allows per match

1º Dezembro
2.00
Sintrense
1.40

finishing

1º Dezembro+0.00on par
Sintrense+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

1º Dezembro ↓

Sintrense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

1º Dezembro or draw
51%
1º Dezembro or Sintrense
77%
Draw or Sintrense
72%

Winning margin

1º Dezembro wins by 2+
12%
Sintrense wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

1º Dezembro 1+ goals
73%
1º Dezembro 2+ goals
37%
1º Dezembro 3+ goals
14%
Sintrense 1+ goals
83%
Sintrense 2+ goals
54%
Sintrense 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

1º Dezembro (draw refunded)
36%
Sintrense (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

1º Dezembro at home — creates 1.20, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Sintrense away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

1º Dezembro attack 1.20 + Sintrense defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30

Sintrense attack 1.60 + 1º Dezembro defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

1º Dezembro scores more
28%
level
23%
Sintrense scores more
49%

Sintrense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Sintrense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: 1º Dezembro vs Sintrense

Sintrense beat 1º Dezembro 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 9, 2018.

The match was played at Campo Conde de Sucena (Sintra).