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07 Vestur vs Vikingur Gota — Meistaradeildin 2019

07 Vestur
07 Vestur
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Vikingur Gota
Vikingur Gota
3/9/2024MeistaradeildinMeistaradeildin · Round 1á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

07 Vestur22%
×Draw21%
Vikingur Gota57%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur
1.22
Vikingur Gota
2.08

Vikingur Gota creates 70% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 103 away

creates per match

07 Vestur
1.36
Vikingur Gota
2.01

allows per match

07 Vestur
2.16
Vikingur Gota
1.07

finishing

07 Vestur+0.00on par
Vikingur Gota+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur ↓

Vikingur Gota →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

07 Vestur or draw
43%
07 Vestur or Vikingur Gota
79%
Draw or Vikingur Gota
78%

Winning margin

07 Vestur wins by 2+
9%
Vikingur Gota wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

07 Vestur 1+ goals
70%
07 Vestur 2+ goals
34%
07 Vestur 3+ goals
12%
Vikingur Gota 1+ goals
87%
Vikingur Gota 2+ goals
61%
Vikingur Gota 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur (draw refunded)
28%
Vikingur Gota (draw refunded)
72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.16 · 76 matches

Vikingur Gota away — creates 2.01, concedes 1.07 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur attack 1.36 + Vikingur Gota defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.22

Vikingur Gota attack 2.01 + 07 Vestur defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

07 Vestur scores more
22%
level
21%
Vikingur Gota scores more
57%

Vikingur Gota at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Vikingur Gota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Meistaradeildin: 07 Vestur 0–2 Vikingur Gota

Vikingur Gota beat 07 Vestur 2-0 in Meistaradeildin on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.