07 Vestur 2–6 B68: Result & Stats | Meistaradeildin

07 Vestur

FT

2 – 6

HT: 2 – 1

B68

M. Borchers 33', 6'

M. Samba 90+3', 70'

S. Løkin 86'

Bouacar Sidik 67', 47', 39'

8/14/2022

Meistaradeildin · Round 18á Dungasandi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

07 Vestur42%

×Draw23%

B6836%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

07 VesturExpected goals in this matchB68

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.62

07 Vestur

1.76

B68

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 75 away

1.36

creates per match

1.07

2.16

allows per match

2.16

creates per match

07 Vestur

1.36

B68

1.07

allows per match

07 Vestur

2.16

B68

2.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

07 Vestur+0.00on par

B68+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur ↓

B68 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

07 Vestur or draw

64%

07 Vestur or B68

77%

Draw or B68

58%

Winning margin

07 Vestur wins by 2+

22%

B68 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

07 Vestur 1+ goals

83%

07 Vestur 2+ goals

52%

07 Vestur 3+ goals

26%

B68 1+ goals

80%

B68 2+ goals

48%

B68 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur (draw refunded)

54%

B68 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur at home — creates 1.36, concedes 2.16 · 76 matches

B68 away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.16 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur attack 1.36 + B68 defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.76

B68 attack 1.07 + 07 Vestur defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

07 Vestur scores more

42%

level

23%

B68 scores more

36%

07 Vestur at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "07 Vestur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

24'

33'

35'

39'

40'

P. T. Anton

46'

S. Egilsson← J. Samuelsen

47'

Bouacar Sidik

55'

T. Olsen← D. Lervig

62'

E. Clementsen← F. Petersen

63'

67'

68'

70'

73'

75'

S. Løkin← Bouacar Sidik

85'

N. Jensen← T. Thomsen

86'

S. Løkin

90+3'

M. Samba

07

B68

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

Manager: M. Schjønberg

46'▲S. Egilsson←▼J. Samuelsen

55'▲T. Olsen←▼D. Lervig

73'▲E. Fróðason←▼Á. Arge

07 Vestur substitutes

EgilssonOlsenFróðasonStojkovic

Manager: A. Olsen

62'▲E. Clementsen←▼F. Petersen

75'▲S. Løkin←▼Bouacar Sidik

85'▲N. Jensen←▼T. Thomsen

B68 substitutes

ClementsenLøkinJensenHansenHøjgaardAntónBrynjarsson

07 Vestur 2 – 6 B68

B68 beat 07 Vestur 6-2 in Meistaradeildin on August 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Borchers (6', 33'), Bouacar Sidik (39', 47', 67'), M. Samba (70', 90+3'), S. Løkin (86').

The match was played at á Dungasandi in Sørvágur, Vágar.

07 Vestur vs B68 — Meistaradeildin 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

07 Vestur 2 – 6 B68