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07 Vestur vs B68 — 1. Deild 2019

07 Vestur
07 Vestur
FT
4 – 2
B68
B68
3/30/20191. Deild1. Deild · Round 3á Dungasandi (Sørvágur, Vágar)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

07 Vestur44%
×Draw23%
B6833%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

07 Vestur
1.80
B68
1.52

07 Vestur creates 18% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 23 away

creates per match

07 Vestur
2.13
B68
1.65

allows per match

07 Vestur
1.39
B68
1.48

finishing

07 Vestur+0.00on par
B68+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

07 Vestur ↓

B68 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

07 Vestur or draw
67%
07 Vestur or B68
77%
Draw or B68
56%

Winning margin

07 Vestur wins by 2+
24%
B68 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

07 Vestur 1+ goals
83%
07 Vestur 2+ goals
54%
07 Vestur 3+ goals
27%
B68 1+ goals
78%
B68 2+ goals
45%
B68 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

07 Vestur (draw refunded)
58%
B68 (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

07 Vestur at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.39 · 23 matches

B68 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.48 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

07 Vestur attack 2.13 + B68 defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.80

B68 attack 1.65 + 07 Vestur defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

07 Vestur scores more
44%
level
23%
B68 scores more
33%

07 Vestur at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "07 Vestur will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Deild: 07 Vestur 4–2 B68

07 Vestur beat B68 4-2 in 1. Deild on March 30, 2019.

The match was played at á Dungasandi (Sørvágur, Vágar).